Weekly update on development process (Jul 18, 2022)

Weekly progress

  • 🧠 Explored the impact of virality on the financial assets.
  • 🧠 Explored the idea of building a network of accounts to force virality.
  • 🤝 Advised another project (stealth mode).

Lessons learnt

We’re continuing our research on virality. Recently, we have narrowed down the criteria for becoming the primary narrative: it’s the “simplest of believable”. We’ll explain what it means in the following paragraphs.


A trading strategy can be formulated as follows:

  • Monitor new memes.
  • Calculate the current speed of spread (num occurrences in current period / num occurrences in previous period).
  • If the meme is spreading “fast enough” (needs better definition), then check the meme for believability.
  • If the meme is believable, then check the meme for non-exhaustiveness of reach (there must still be reachable people who have not bought yet).
  • If all conditions pass, then buy.

Note 1

Some narratives are believable despite being logically false. For example, “a shell doesn’t hit the same hole twice” is quite believable despite being mathematically incorrect: the probability of a new hit doesn’t depend on old hits at the hole. However, hiding in that hole provides some protection, so the soldiers believing this false narrative are more likely to survive. Therefore, the narrative will spread even though it’s logically incorrect.

Note 2

Out of 2 conflicting narratives, the first one that becomes internalized becomes dominant (reduces the probability of the second one taking hold). This is because people perceive as less believable something that contradicts their existing world view. Even if their world view is flawed, they will still have a hard time replacing it (only in the face of overwhelming evidence).

Next week’s focus

  1. 🤝 Advise current projects.
  2. 🤝 Increase our network & strengthen existing connections.

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